The “Same but Different” Pattern – Another Wet Storm Later In The Week

By January 12, 2020 25 Comments

Good morning bloggers,

What a week!  What a storm! What a weather pattern?  Well, this weather pattern certainly is entertaining us a bit.  Who was reaching extreme weather frustration as the models came in Friday Night In The Big Town?  My goodness was that difficult.  I never budged from our 3″ to 6″ prediction, and whether it was 2″ to 5″, or 1″ to 4″, I believe our forecast ended up verifying.  It was not easy to do the weather Friday night.  Why didn’t I budge, even in the face of some of the models coming in so low?  Because I continued to forecast and believe that we would end up in that band of snow that would slowly move through on the back edge of the storm.  And, it is exactly what happened.  I awakened at 4 AM to get ready for work yesterday, and I scanned all of the radars, and I saw evidence of the developing comma, and let me tell you it was limited evidence. And, then from 4 AM to 8 AM it was so much fun watching it line up and intensify much farther west and stronger than the models had shown, but what I was expecting.

So, what just happened?  An impacting storm just tracked across the United States. The impacts included severe weather outbreak over two days with 700 wind damage reports, but only 13 tornado reports.

Kansas City had an amazing three days!

  • On Thursday January 8th:  A record high of 66°
  • On Friday, January 9th:  More than an average month of January rainfall total with 1.36″ (Average is 1.07″ for an entire month)
  • On Saturday, January 10th:  Kansas City had a record snowfall for the date of 3.6″ with 0.30″ liquid

Now, how does this fit the LRC?  What happened in the last cycle?  In November Kansas City had snow on Veteran’s Day and records were broken as temperatures crashed from near record highs to many record lows.  Hmmmmmmm, It’s the Same, But Different!  Take a look a this that was tweeted comparing 11-11-2019 to 11-11-1911:

So, what is next?  Something amazing happened last night. The Tennessee Titans beat the Baltimore Ravens.  So, if the Chiefs beat the Texans today, next Sunday the game would be played at Arrowhead to go to the Super Bowl! Go Chiefs.

There is  an upper level storm moving our way.  It will be mostly cloudy with a chance of a few snow, graupel, or rain showers.  Temperatures should rise into the lower 30s and the wind shouldn’t be too much of a factor.  Go Patrick Mahomes, Let’s do this!

There are other ups and downs on the way, and this storm we have to monitor for later in the week as it may be another wet storm, and yes, it fits the LRC perfectly.

This end of the week storm may produce another 1-2 inches of rain in the area.  And, it may start as freezing rain, and end as snow, with the rain in the middle.

For today:

  • At Arrowhead Stadium it will be cloud with a chance of snow or graupel showers.  A strong disturbance will pass overhead and the best chance of showers is during the second half.  High:  33°

I am jumping on an airplane early this morning, and I better get to Boston before the game starts.  No delays please.  I will check in later, and update the blog in a couple of days.  Thank you for sharing in this weather experience.  It was lightly snowing this morning on my way to the airport.


Gary Lezak

Author Gary Lezak

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Join the discussion 25 Comments

  • Damian Gerstner says:

    Might check your dates for this last week. My calendar shows Thursday – Saturday being January 9 – 11.

    • Jimmy Tinner says:

      “I never budged from our 3″ to 6″ prediction, and whether it was 2″ to 5″, or 1″ to 4″, I believe our forecast ended up verifying.“ I tried commenting yesterday but I guess my comment got deleted, but how does the above comment even Make sense? Not trying to be mean but if it doesn’t fall within those parameters how is that a verification?!?!?!

  • Mr. Pete says:

    I measured 1.5 here in Prairie Village. You can’t call the forecast a bust because it did snow however not the 3-6 promised for my area.

  • Jeff says:

    Richmond, MO had 3 inches of snow yesterday as well. Travel safe Gary! Enjoy the conference!

  • Blue Flash says:

    Mother Nature had another trick up her sleeve. Gerard was calling for lows of around 10 degrees, maybe some single digits. Actually it rose 5 degrees during the night for a morning “low” of 22. All this in spite of a fresh snowpack. Must be some serious warm air advection coming today.

  • Grizzle says:

    So much fun radar watching yesterday! I’m happy with the snow, plus is CHIEFS SUNDAY!!!! Hopefully all the other bloggers had a great time watching it snow yesterday!

    • Hume Dude says:

      Id call it a bust becuase many areas in metro got less than 2″.
      3-6″ implies 3″ is lowest amount on table. Nobody got even close to 6″.

  • Ted in STJOE says:

    ok, things never go as forecast. less than one inch of snow up here.

    23 now and frdrzle later today.

    TH-FR it will be 3-4 degrees cooler and and we have a snow event …..

  • George Huber says:

    Right at an inch at my place in O.P. 87th & Antioch

  • Three7s says:

    12z GFS has a pretty significant ice event for Friday and it has shown this off and on. Other model runs have had it as rain. The AO as this storm comes in will be huge.

  • Nicholas Rau says:

    I was always suspect for KSTJ getting the comma head snow, I wondered if the storm would have been like the snow in december where we got the first wave of snow but missed the comma head snow, this time we got the first round( ice this time) and most of the comma head was to our south and east, although we did get a bit of it. Either way an icy winter wonderland out there right now.

  • Hockeynut69 says:

    Is this the same storm that hit on Black Friday weekend ? I had the 17th-19th of this month pegged for a storm. It appears the snow part of it will take a similar path as that storm.

  • Rodney Davis says:

    Read this on Twitter and thought I would share. Wondering if we’re going to see some big changes later this month going into February with some serious cold and stormy weather could be a fun ride. By the way I picked up 1.8” of snow in Ashland so that brings my season snow total up to 7.8”.

    Rodney (Ashland, MO)

  • Blue Flash says:

    Number of times it has been forecast to go above freezing the day after a January snow……..25

    Number of times it has actually happened…..0.

  • David Cook says:

    In Kirksville we had 0.80” of rain on Friday, about 0.20” of ice on the trees, & about 1” of snow yesterday.

  • Weatherby Tom says:

    Winter Weather Advisory???

  • Cindy59 says:

    I’ve looked at radar and don’t see anything southwest or northwest that would bring us precipitation

  • Weatherfreaker says:

    Winter weather advisory issued for tonight…seems like it came out of nowhere…anyone? Anyone?

  • Ted in STJOE says:


  • Heat Mizer says:

    It kind of verified and kind of didnt. Some areas got three inches, but almost nobody got the 4-6 inch range. I know from past predictions, that range means depending on your location, some should get close to three inches, and others should get closer to 6 inches, depending on where the heavier snow sets up. So it didn’t come in as strongly as you predicted…lets be honest. It was about half as strong as was predicted over all, maybe slightly more than half as strong.