Good afternoon bloggers,

I am in Boston for the 100th Anniversary American Meteorological Society conference.  It was 72 degrees here when I landed, and then I saw snowflakes Monday morning.

There is a storm system that will be approaching Thursday.  Snow, sleet, freezing rain, and rains are all likely Thursday night into Friday.  There are some concerns.

Here is and excellent with up from Jeff Penner from late yesterday.

KSHB Weather Blog

Our next blog entry will be posted around 6 PM tomorrow.  Thank your for spending a few minutes of your day reading the blog.  Have a great Tuesday.

Gary

 

 

Gary

Gary Lezak

Author Gary Lezak

More posts by Gary Lezak

Join the discussion 50 Comments

  • Terry says:

    Gary I was wondering do you think that Friday afternoon and Friday evening will not be a problem?

  • Jason says:

    Great, another ice storm…..

  • SnowGoPewPew says:

    Gary,

    I was reading about some new machine learning weather forecasting that Google is doing research on. They say they were able to accurately predict rainfall for a 1km area up to 6 hours before it happened. Exciting stuff for sure.
    https://www.theverge.com/2020/1/14/21065095/google-ai-weather-forecast-predictions-rainfall-research

  • Clay says:

    The latest NAM makes for a messy Friday morning commute

  • Three7s says:

    The models have been extremely consistent on this ice Friday morning. It will get above freezing later, but if the GFS is even close on this one, Friday morning could be a nightmare.

  • Stl78 (winona,MN) says:

    This isnt shaping up as tour garden variety ice storm. If the 12z nam were to verify it would b crippling! One kc hasnt seen in years. I sure hope its wrong!

  • MMike says:

    12z ICON has an interesting look to it today, snow, then sleet/freezing rain over to maybe rain. This model is running cold and only gets us to about 34 or so Friday, then it tracks the low south of us and puts us under rain over to snow Friday night into Saturday with accumulations.

    12z, NAM looks about the same but only goes out to 84 hours.

    So, wintry precipitation looks likely at this point for Thursday night through the first half of Friday.

  • Jack Lind says:

    I am wondering why it seems like no one is talking much about this storm?? Nam is by far the coldest and wettest; it has most of the precip in the form of sleet and snow with some freezing rain. The icon model would also have an ice storm because it has mostly rain with temps in the upper twenties. Gfs is much warmer and has a bit less in regards in qpf. This will be interesting to track!!

    Jack

    • Curtis Lange says:

      Because of last week’s storm. People destroyed the local weather folks online after the storm when we only received 1-2″ of snow versus the forecasted 3-6″. Seems they’re playing the ‘wait and see’ game with this storm…which is going to still draw out those same loud naysayers: “WHY DIDN’T THEY TELL US SOONER?!” Damned if you do, damned if you don’t.

  • Elaine Watson says:

    NWS has snow and rain without mention of freezing rain. Gary what are your latest thoughts?

  • Fred Smith says:

    I would say that most meteorologists are a bit wary about making any bold predictions about this upcoming “storm.” Last time, the NWS went way out on a limb and hoisted a WSW 48 hours in advance and TV mets jumped on the bandwagon, too. When the 6-8 inches of snow went to 3-5 inches then to 2-4 inches and then ultimately 1-3 inches…a lot of wordplay and backtracking on forecasts happened…and I think they don’t want a repeat of last weekend.

    But, I have got the generator ready, just in case any of the ice storm forecasts we are going to receive over the next 72 hours verifies.

  • Garrett Osbourn says:

    Where’s the cold air when you need it man? This thing would be perfect snowstorm. NEVER CLEAN CUT HERE!

  • Mr. Pete says:

    Time to dust off the ole generators

  • JeffG says:

    Based on my limited uneducated experiences with following ice storm predictions they seem to be the hardest storms to predict. With that being said the cold air will most likely be in place well before the arrival of the rain from the southwest. For this reason I think we may be in for a big storm. With 1/2″ -1″ of precipitation predicted in some form it may really be rough on Friday morning. The ground will be cold.

    I wondered the same thing about no talk about the upcoming weather, but with Gary out of town, someone else has to moderate this site. Thanks to whoever is doing that!!

  • Elaine Watson says:

    NWS forecast is for snow then rain and back to a bit of snow with no mention of ice.

    • Fred Smith says:

      NWS is not sure where the freezing line will set up, not yet at least.

      I would suspect we will know more by Thursday night. 🙂

  • Kole Christian says:

    Just hoping we stay away from .25 inch of ice

  • Ryan L says:

    Will we get a 3″ snowstorm this winter? (yes, I know KCI officially got over 3″ last weekend).

    • Drew Blasi says:

      So we did? Lol

      • Ryan L says:

        90% of the metro (by population didn’t). Never understood why KCI is the official reporting location for weather. It’s not centrally located in the slightest. I would guess 90+ percent of the Metro’s population is south of KCI.

        • Drew Blasi says:

          Ok but In December most of the metro got over three inches during that snowstorm before Christmas my area in OP received nearly 7

  • Bill in Lawrence says:

    Happy Tuesday afternoon everyone…I hope all is going well in Boston Gary!!

    IMHO, if one were betting Thursday/Friday morning, one would have to put the money on the warm air destroying the cold air before any real issues arise. There has only been one instance in this LRC where the cold air has actually held on and that was the last week of October in cycle 1 with a negative AO. The last week of October set up has already come and gone so this is not that set up and we have a raging positive AO to boot. Think of December…5 inches of snow wiped out in less than 48 hours (accept on a few north facing hills); this past Saturday’s 3.2 inches of snow gone in 4 hours yesterday. Most of the time, once the warm air begins to move in in this LRC it has won.

    Granted, we have managed to produce 2 decent snow events with a positive AO and with just small chunks of cold air making brief appearances. Also, this cold front due in was pretty potent in cycle 1 so it will have some bite and the AO is beginning to drop. However, this upcoming set up to me screams having 1-2 hours at most of frozen precip and then the warm air takes over…especially for here in Lawrence where we are 45 miles SW of KCI. I would put the percentages of a decent to significant winter type event Thursday night into Friday morning in Lawrence at 25%. The only factor really going for this is that the cold front will be pretty potent but considering this LRC and the positive AO one would have to bet that the warm air will win out pretty quickly.

    As always, I am just a hobbyist so these thoughts are really what Granny Hawkins from Outlaw Josey Wales called doodley squat!!! However, if the NAM and some of the other models are onto something, then this will be a significant event even if the temps eventually rise above freezing…the damage will be done. Even if one thinks the percentages of a decent to significant icing event are 25%, you have to pay attention to the possibilities.

    Have a great evening everyone

    Bill in Washington Creek Valley in Lawrence

    • Jason says:

      Hope you are right

    • Three7s says:

      I will agree that the crazy positive AO would be a factor, but according to the AO index, it’s supposed to drop like a rock from now to Thursday. I’m talking the near +5 territory it is now all the way down to +1. Even though it’s still positive, that is a HUGE decrease in a short time. If the AO stayed in the +3-+5 range like it is now, I would agree with you, but it’s really hard to say with the AO in such a flux.

      Guess we’ll see.

    • Andrew H says:

      Always a hobbyist
      We know
      But you really like to write your weather thoughts in detail

  • Athan Perahoritis says:

    When we are the targets for the heaviest precipitation this far out usually by the time the storm comes through we are on the edge of any precipitation. I would not hold my breath.

  • Garrett Osbourn says:

    Wild call, cold air digs quicker than models suggest, 100% snow system. When the models say big snow you know it will be small, when they say small but (could) be huge, it will be huge.

  • Kristi Harris says:

    New model update ?

  • Elaine Watson says:

    Bill in Lawrence, seems the NWS discussion agrees with you. This morning Jeff P. on sports radio 810 still leans toward there being problems Friday morning.
    What is the feeling of the bloggers?????

    • Fred Smith says:

      We must not have read the same NWS Forecast Discussion. Because they are not only concerned about the increasing chances of sleet and freezing rain, but also the possibility of snow.

      From what I have gathered, NWS is saying 1-3 inches of snow, a transition to sleet and freezing rain on top of the snow…and they believe they won’t see temperatures above freezing until noon or later…when it will transition to rain.

      Best guess is that starts around 1:00 AM and lasts throughout rush hour and beyond. It’s going to be a mess.

      But, then again, may hobbyist Bill sees something in the weather models that the NWS forecasters don’t see.

  • Stl78 (winona,MN) says:

    I personally think there will b issues. At least thats what the models continue to show as a real possibility. Hopefully the warm air moves in quicker and reduces any real threat but when it comes to ice i always fear the worst and hope for the best…#icesucks!

  • Three7s says:

    A certain someone on another blog thinks the KC area will have a window of about 6-9 hours on Friday morning of a mix of sleet and freezing rain. Not saying who due to competition reasons.

  • Athan Perahoritis says:

    Since there has been no updates today either by the meteorologist or on this blog I’m assuming the storm is weakening?

  • michele springs says:

    New Blog?

  • Kaden Huber says:

    Gary, when will you be back in town?

  • Mike Traner says:

    Winter Storm Watch for the KC metro

  • Matt Galvin says:

    Winter Storm Watch.

  • Fred Smith says:

    Oh no! The dreaded Winter Storm Watch! Now, we definitely know something is not going to happen…we’ve been jinxed again by the NWS.