Good evening bloggers,

A Winter Storm Watch is now in effect beginning around midnight Thursday night/Friday morning.  Another rather wet storm system is heading out into the plains Thursday night and Friday.  Here is what we are expecting in Kansas City:

  • The storm may begin with snow on the leading edge, then quickly changeover to sleet or freezing rain.  This will happen on Thursday night
  • Accumulations of snow are possible briefly at the beginning, more likely north of KC
  • The wind will be blowing up to 35 mph
  • The precipitation is likely to be all freezing rain by late Friday morning into the afternoon
  • Accumulations of ice between 1/4″ and 1/2″ are possible. The 1/2″ of ice accumulation is the threshold for potential big problems of the ice causing tree branches to break off and land into power lines, causing power outages
  • The problems may suddenly end if the temperatures rise to above freezing, as many of the models show Friday afternoon

This forecast map above shows the forecast for around 7 AM Friday. Snow may be heavy over northern Missouri, and freezing rain will be helping accumulate ice on elevated and untreated surfaces farther south, with the transition to rain farther southwest (the green areas).

Some of the models are showing the temperatures rising just above freezing by 2 PM Friday. This will be important to monitor, as one or two degrees will make a huge difference in how much ice accumulates.
The warmer air will surge in, and then look at what happens:

By midnight Friday Night we are fully into the warm sector of this storm system.  A cold front will be approaching.  And, by Saturday morning, the cold front will blast through. There is a chance of some minor snow accumulation as this front goes through late Friday night:

And, then by Sunday, the weather will begin to calm down. We will be deep into the cold air by then with Arctic air just a couple hundred miles to the north.  It will be cold, with a breeze from the northeast or east on Sunday for the huge AFC Championship game at Arrowhead Stadium.

I have been in Boston at the AMS conference, and I came down with a rather bad cold/virus too, so this is why the blog comments have been delayed so much.  We will try to get them posted as fast as possible.
Have a great evening,

Gary Lezak

Author Gary Lezak

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