Good morning bloggers,
The winter is now over, and we will look back at the winter in a couple of days. The weather pattern is cycling perfectly according to the LRC. We have been in a 58-59 day cycle and it has oscillated through a range from a low end 56 days to a high end 61 days. One of the big influences on the LRC, and it is likely caused by the pattern we are in, has been the positive AO and NAO indexes. As the jet stream strength, or rather the flow aloft strength weakens in response to winter fading and summer approaching, the temperature contrasts weakening, the flow aloft may finally be favorable for the AO to dip negative? Perhaps? Not sure yet?
The jet stream is actually modeled to become powerful over the Pacific in the next ten days, and some potential blocking over the far north latitudes over Greenland is forecast to develop.
The AO index is forecast to finally dip to neutral or negative. It last went below positive territory in December, and that was only for a brief time. We just experienced a winter with an AO positive index almost the entire winter long. The last snowfall in KC was February 12th, and I would never have thought that would have happened. We have had a few days of snowflakes since then, but no more accumulation. We still ended up with 17″ at KCI Airport and 22″ at the National Weather Service in Pleasant Hill. We were one or two more snowstorms away from my winter forecast from verifying. We will fall short unless something crazy happens in April.
A storm Sunday, and then this:
This map is valid at 1 AM central time Tuesday. A nice surface cyclone is forecast to be on the Oklahoma/Kansas border, with another surface low off the east coast. Let’s see how this sets up. We have a 100% chance of rain in KC Sunday, and then this on Monday night.
Have a great weekend. We are all in this “life changing” health crisis together. It is hard believe what we are all going through, and we will get through this in the next few months. I hope everyone is doing well.