Good morning bloggers,

The winter is now over, and we will look back at the winter in a couple of days.  The weather pattern is cycling perfectly according to the LRC.  We have been in a 58-59 day cycle and it has oscillated through a range from a low end 56 days to a high end 61 days.  One of the big influences on the LRC, and it is likely caused by the pattern we are in, has been the positive AO and NAO indexes.  As the jet stream strength, or rather the flow aloft strength weakens in response to winter fading and summer approaching, the temperature contrasts weakening, the flow aloft may finally be favorable for the AO to dip negative?  Perhaps? Not sure yet?

The jet stream is actually modeled to become powerful over the Pacific in the next ten days, and some potential blocking over the far north latitudes over Greenland is forecast to develop.

The AO index is forecast to finally dip to neutral or negative.  It last went below positive territory in December, and that was only for a brief time.  We just experienced a winter with an AO positive index almost the entire winter long.  The last snowfall in KC was February 12th, and I would never have thought that would have happened. We have had a few days of snowflakes since then, but no more accumulation.  We still ended up with 17″ at KCI Airport and 22″ at the National Weather Service in Pleasant Hill.  We were one or two more snowstorms away from my winter forecast from verifying.  We will fall short unless something crazy happens in April.

A storm Sunday, and then this:

This map is valid at 1 AM central time Tuesday. A nice surface cyclone is forecast to be on the Oklahoma/Kansas border, with another surface low off the east coast.  Let’s see how this sets up.  We have a 100% chance of rain in KC Sunday, and then this on Monday night.

Have a great weekend.  We are all in this “life changing” health crisis together.  It is hard believe what we are all going through, and we will get through this in the next few months.  I hope everyone is doing well.

Gary

Gary Lezak

Author Gary Lezak

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Join the discussion 14 Comments

  • Avatar Lainie Franklin says:

    A great weekend to curl up with a good book!

  • Avatar Heat Mizer says:

    Still such a wet pattern…works for me. 😉 RIP Kenny Rogers.

  • Avatar Mr. Pete says:

    Gary I missed the spring special. Can you post a copy on here?

  • Avatar Brian Watson says:

    This should have been something we let run its course just like we do during flu season. The real crisis is the panic that they have incited. Tens of thousands of people die each year to the flu and no one flinches. Yes I understand this is a stronger strain for people with pre existing conditions. But they have collapsed the economy in one month. That is impressive.

    • Avatar Heat Mizer says:

      Educate yourself…this is not just like the flu…its worse and about 2-3 times more contagious. Unchecked it would kill a lot more people and overwhelm our health care system. Once this is under control, the economy will spring back quickly.

      • Avatar Mike McComb says:

        Not quite 2x as contagious. China has had it for almost 4 months, and has killed under 4K people. Flu kills on average 50k people a year there! We’re closing down EVERYTHING over 2 deaths in the ENTIRE state! And it’s been here for probably a month…at this rate, more businesses will be killed than people. CDC has said the same number of people will get this, but they want to “slow the curve”. Seems to me we’re just delaying the spike, because what happens when they let us loose again? The economy can’t spring back quickly when so many businesses can’t reopen! With so many out of work, they’ll be unable to spend because they are going in debt. Sadly, because this isn’t what they say it is, and fatalities won’t be close to flu numbers, government will declare they controlled it, and shut downs will become our new protocol…

        • Avatar Heat Mizer says:

          Experts i’ve see are saying roughly 2.5x

        • Avatar Brian Watson says:

          Amen. Yes it’s going to overwhelm our health care system anyway. Every person with a sniffle,cough, fever is going to be in the emergency room. On average year most of us that get the flu stay home for a couple days and never see the doctors office. Everyone is going to be there now, and in the end what can they do? Very little at this point other than isolate you further. You want to see how crazy this is? Look at what they’re doing now. You can’t go to a movie theater where people are fairly distanced and don’t face each other but you can go to a grocery store where 1,000 people are all huddled trying to get what food they can before the government makes them stay home. They keep condensing the hours which causes bigger crowds. I wonder where you are more likely to get it??? I am not wanting to do this every two years a new virus comes out. It sets a bad precedent. When my time comes so be it but until then let’s be just be more cautious but let business go about it’s every day life.

  • Avatar Samuel Jeffers says:

    Too little too late with the AO. The sun is heating up and days are longer. Snow? Maybe. Huge accumulation? Not a chance in this LRC but happy to eat my words as I love weather events.

    • Avatar Bill Walberg says:

      This isn’t like a weather forecast that goes poof. It’s a novel virus that is extremely contagious with no vaccine with a kill rate of 2-4%. It’s simple math. Even if just half the population gets it, that’s a kill rate of 6-12 million. The higher number is more than the population of Kansas and Missouri combined. More will die if we don’t flatten the curve because hospitals will have to turn people away even for regular lifesaving procedures. I’m not trying to attack you, but please understand the severity of the situation. We have emergency protocols in place for this exact reason. If we do not do something quickly, we will turn into Italy, where they are starting to institute age cutoffs for who they treat. What we are going through sucks, but if I can save just one life by losing half my retirement account or having to file for unemployment, it’s worth it.

  • Avatar Samuel Jeffers says:

    Ive watched the NAO and AO for years now and wonder if it doesnt dictate the LRC and the LRC not dictate the NAO or AO? Just a question as I firmly believe the weather cycles.

    • Gary Lezak Gary Lezak says:

      Samuel,

      It is likely all tied together. What we see in the LRC likely dictates the AO. What is the LRC? It is an overall cycling pattern that has ocean/atmosphere/astronomical influences. The LRC describes the overall cycling pattern that is close to as perfect as the astronomical cycles, and because it is a fluid, it seems to be chaotic. It is far from chaos, however. There is order, and the LRC describes this order.

  • Avatar Samuel Jeffers says:

    Gary,

    I believe in the cycling patterns but after following weather for so long, Im just beginning to think the North Pole and how quickly the air flows north and south and its regular swings is the ultimate determimant of our weather. Id love to split a coke with you to discuss this as I too love weather. Im amazed at what you discovered tho and a true follower. The pattern us regular but by what cause I ask you.

  • Avatar Ted in STJOE says:

    Well, heck 0.33 in. cool and damp and we need dry and sunny.

    be safe and stay home

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