Good morning bloggers,
It has been a very active severe weather season from southeastern Oklahoma east to Georgia over the south and southeastern USA. Take a look at the risks today and then on Friday, which is May 1:
As you can see above, May will begin quite quiet. And, there is not a risk showing up in KC at all. We have analyzed each cycle of the LRC, and this pattern has just been fascinating, unique, unlike anything we have ever seen before. This is the nature of the LRC, as every year is different. This pattern has its characteristics. It is just almost impossible for me to believe that February 12th was the last measurable snow in KC this past winter. This fact is likely a result of the positive Arctic Oscillation that continues to this day. With this said, about this past winter, the same pattern continues to cycle into May, and it will continue through September, and then we can throw this pattern out and start a brand new one in October. So, in looking back at each cycle, the potential for severe weather set ups over tornado alley will develop as we move into the second half of May. This first half will be quite quiet.
2019 Tornado Watches
Look at last year: All of the 2019 tornado watches are plotted above. My biggest shocking take away is that northern Missouri did not have one tornado watch all of 2019, and an area over eastern Nebraska was also free of any tornado watches all of last year. Doesn’t that just blow your mind? Now, let’s look at this year’s watches so far, in these first four months of the year.
2020 Tornado Watches
The first take away is that the area near the Iowa border had a major snow a couple of weeks ago, and they already had 1 more tornado watch than the 0 they had last year. And, Kansas has been pretty much tornado watchless in 2020 thus far, with no chance of a watch for a while. WOW!
And, look at the climatology for severe weather on April 30:
So, for it to be so quiet across Kansas to end April, and begin May, is quite unusual. Gerard Jebaily, storm chaser and KSHB meteorologist, tells me, “we always have a chance of significant severe weather in the first week of May. And, I always say, “always, Gerard. Are you sure?”. Not always, and right now it is quiet as we move through the next few days. There still will be risks south and southeast of KC, but for now, this first half of May looks fairly quiet in the heartland!
Cooler air is moving in. Have a great Wednesday. I hope you are all doing well in this difficult and challenging time around the world. Have a great day.